Why Fractal Analytics IPO is the “Nvidia of India” and the Real Reason the GMP is the Most Watched Number Today

If you’ve been waiting for a “pure-play” AI bet on the Indian stock market, the wait is officially over. Today, February 9, 2026, Fractal Analytics—India’s first AI unicorn—kicked off its ₹2,834 Crore IPO. The truth is, while the broader market is reacting to the India-US trade deal, the “Smart Money” is quietly pivoting toward this listing, which many are calling the “Nvidia of India.”

But here is the catch: Unlike traditional IT firms that sell “man-hours,” Fractal sells “Intelligence.” With the Grey Market Premium (GMP) fluctuating wildly this morning, investors are asking one question: Is this the next multibagger or an overvalued tech trap?

The Shocking Comparison: Why “Nvidia of India”?

Calling a company the “Nvidia of India” is a bold claim, but for Fractal, it’s not just marketing hype. While Nvidia provides the hardware (GPUs) for AI, Fractal provides the “Large Reasoning Models” (LRMs) that actually make enterprises run.

1. The “IndiaAI” Mission Blueprint

Fractal was recently selected by the Government of India to build the nation’s first Large Reasoning Model (LRM)—a 70-billion parameter system designed to compete with OpenAI’s o1. This gives Fractal a “Sovereign AI” moat that no other Indian company possesses.

2. High-Octane “Net Revenue Retention”

Nvidia’s success is built on companies needing more chips every year. Fractal has a similar “sticky” model. Their Net Revenue Retention (NRR) stands at 121%. The truth be told, even if they don’t sign a single new customer, their revenue grows by 21% annually just because their existing clients (like Google, Citibank, and Nestlé) keep buying more AI solutions.

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Fractal Analytics IPO: The “Power Move” Details

Before you hit the “Apply” button, you need to know the math. The company has recalibrated its pricing to leave “money on the table” for the Common Man investor.

The IPO Snapshot: Old vs. New 2026 Reality

IPO Detail	Data / Value	Strategic Significance
Price Band	₹857 – ₹900	Recalibrated down from ₹1,110
Issue Size	₹2,834 Crore	Reduced by 42% for better pricing
Market Cap	~₹15,480 Crore	Scarcity premium for AI theme
Lot Size	16 Shares	Min. Investment: ₹14,400
P/E Ratio	~71x	Premium valuation vs IT (25x)

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The Real Reason the GMP is the Most Watched Number Today

The Grey Market Premium (GMP) for Fractal is currently the most volatile number on D-Street.

• The Shocking Shift: Early February saw the GMP at ₹182 (a 20% premium), but as of February 9, it has stabilized around ₹35 – ₹182 range depending on the source.
• Why the fluctuation? Here is the catch: The government’s delay in GPU allocation (Nvidia H100 chips) for Fractal’s national AI model has caused some short-term jitters. However, with the India-US GPU Deal now signed, these compute bottlenecks are expected to vanish by August 2026.

What the Analysts are Saying

The “Expert Consensus” is split between those who love the “AI Moat” and those who fear the “Valuation.”

• Choice Broking: “Fractal is a high-conviction growth play. It is India’s first pure-play AI bet. Apply for long-term gains.”
• Market Skeptics: “At 71x P/E, the stock is twice as expensive as TCS. There is zero room for execution error.”
• The “Anchor” Vote: Marquee investors like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and SBI Mutual Fund have already poured in ₹1,248 Crore at the upper band, showing institutional trust.

Also Read: Why SBI Shares are Surging 6% Today and How the “Secret” ₹2,200 Crore Dividend is Making Investors Rich

💡 Pro-Tip: The “Employee Discount” Hack

If you are an employee of Fractal or a related entity, there is a ₹85 per share discount. For the Retail Investor, keep an eye on the Day 2 Subscription numbers. If the QIB (Institutional) portion is oversubscribed by 5x on Tuesday, the listing gains are almost guaranteed.

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The Bottom Line

The Fractal Analytics IPO is more than just a stock listing; it is a test of India’s appetite for “Deep Tech.” If you believe AI is the infrastructure of the future, Fractal is your “Secret Blueprint.” However, if you are looking for a cheap value stock, this 71x P/E giant might give you a headache.