Synopsis: Fractal Analytics Ltd (NSE: FRACTAL) shares plunged 5.33% from their issue price on February 16, 2026, after a muted debut at a 2.67% discount. The “Zero-Minute” fact is that the stock listed at ₹876 against the ₹900 issue price, eventually hitting an intraday low of ₹852. The crash was triggered by a “Zero-to-Negative GMP” warning, expensive post-issue valuations of 109x P/E, and a massive ₹1.3 Lakh Crore sell-off in the Nifty IT index just 48 hours prior.
On Monday, February 16, 2026, the much-hyped listing of India’s first pure-play AI major, Fractal Analytics, turned into a nightmare for retail investors. The shares debuted at ₹876 on the NSE (a 2.67% discount) and at par at ₹900 on the BSE. However, the initial stability quickly evaporated as heavy selling pressure dragged the stock down to an intraday low of ₹852. The listing effectively wiped out over ₹700 Crore in notional investor wealth within the first few hours of trading.
The subdued performance was foreshadowed by the Grey Market Premium (GMP), which collapsed from a high of ₹180 in early February to a negative ₹28 on the day of the listing. This “Zero GMP” warning became a reality as the market struggled to digest the company’s premium pricing amidst a global cooling of the AI-hype cycle and a brutal rout in the Indian IT sector.
Why did Fractal Analytics stock crash after listing?
The primary driver of the crash was Extreme Valuation Friction. At the issue price of ₹900, Fractal Analytics was valued at a post-FY25 P/E multiple of 78.9x, and a staggering 109x based on annualized FY26 earnings. Analysts had warned that this pricing was “rich” compared to traditional IT peers, especially as the company’s profit margins moderated from 8.0% in FY25 to 4.5% in H1 FY26.
Furthermore, the “1-2-1” rule of market sentiment played a critical role: one massive sectoral crash (Nifty IT), two global macro fears (US rate jitters), and one lukewarm subscription turnout. The IPO saw a moderate subscription of 2.66 times, but retail participation was barely above 1.03 times, indicating a lack of “sticky” long-term interest from the Aam Aadmi at current price points.
Fractal Analytics: IPO Listing Day Performance (Feb 16, 2026)
| Metric | NSE Data | BSE Data | Change from Issue Price |
| Issue Price | ₹900.00 | ₹900.00 | – |
| Listing Price | ₹876.00 | ₹900.00 | 2.67% ↓ (NSE) |
| Intraday Low | ₹852.15 | ₹855.55 | 5.33% ↓ |
The “Analyst Consensus” on Fractal Analytics
Brokerages are advising caution, suggesting that the stock may face further consolidation as it seeks a realistic valuation floor.
- SBI Securities: Maintains a “Neutral” stance, citing that while revenue growth is healthy at an 18% CAGR, historical earnings volatility and high attrition (near 16%) remain key risk factors.
- Swastika Investmart: Head of Wealth, Shivani Nyati, noted that high valuations and the current weak AI-sector sentiment make the stock prone to volatility, advising long-term investors to hold only if they have a 3-5 year horizon.
- Technical View: Chartists believe the stock has found initial support near the ₹850 mark. However, a failure to close above ₹880 in the coming sessions could lead to a further slide toward the ₹810 zone.
Also Read: Kwality Wall’s Listing at 26% Discount: Why the HUL Demerger Debut Stunned Retail Investors
The Bottom Line
The 5.3% crash in Fractal Analytics is a definitive sign that Dalal Street is no longer rewarding “AI Hype” without sustainable profit margins. For investors, the focus now shifts to the company’s ability to utilize its ₹1,023 Crore fresh issue proceeds to scale its “Cogentiq” agentic AI platform and improve bottom-line consistency.