Fractal Analytics Shares Surge 4%: Why Prabhudas Lilladher’s ₹1,260 Target Triggered a Post-Listing Rebound

Synopsis: Fractal Analytics (NSE: FRACTAL) shares rose 4.28% to ₹883 on February 18, 2026, rebounding from a 3% listing-day discount. The “Zero-Minute” fact is that brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher initiated coverage with a “BUY” rating and a ₹1,260 target price, citing 98% client retention and an AI-first model that justifies a premium 43% upside forecast.

On Wednesday, February 18, 2026, Fractal Analytics Limited witnessed a significant reversal in sentiment, with its stock price gaining as much as 4.28% to settle at ₹883.45. This recovery follows a lackluster debut on Monday, where the shares listed at a discount to the issue price of ₹900. The “bullish trigger” was a comprehensive initiation report from Prabhudas Lilladher, which branded the company as India’s first “pure-play AI gateway” and set an aggressive price target.

The stock touched an intraday high of ₹921, briefly breaching its IPO price band before cooling off. Analysts suggest that while the initial 109x P/E valuation scared off retail investors, institutional interest is returning as the market begins to price in the “decoupling” of revenue from headcount through AI-led automation.

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Why is a 43% upside projected for Fractal Analytics?

The primary driver of the 43% upside forecast is Fractal’s High Client Retention & “Must Win” Strategy. The company derives 80% of its revenue from existing accounts, with a 98% annuity-led model. This deep integration into the decision-making cycles of Fortune 500 giants like Google and Citibank creates a “sticky” revenue moat that traditional IT services often lack.

Furthermore, the “1-2-1” rule of the brokerage’s thesis was evident: one dominant tech platform (Cogentiq), two high-growth vertical moats (CPG and Healthcare making up 50%+ of revenue), and one profitability pivot (Fractal Alpha). The brokerage expects the Fractal Alpha segment—which incubates standalone AI businesses—to break even by FY27, providing a significant boost to consolidated EBITDA margins.

Fractal Analytics: Financial & Valuation Snapshot

Metric	Current/Estimated	Change/Outlook	Brokerage View (PL)
Current Market Price	₹883.45	Listed at ₹876	“Oversold Entry”
Target Price	₹1,260	43% Upside	Buy Initiation
USD Revenue CAGR	19.3% (FY26-28E)	Outpacing IT Sector	High-Growth Play
Net Profit CAGR	44.5% (FY26-28E)	Operating Leverage	Structural Pivot

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The “AI-Led Enterprise” Positioning

Fractal is successfully transitioning from a project-based analytics firm to a platform-first AI company.

• Agentic AI Edge: Through its Cogentiq platform, Fractal is deploying “AI Agents” that autonomously handle enterprise workflows, improving unit economics.
• Vertical Specialization: With 40% of revenue coming from Revenue Growth Management (RGM), Fractal is positioned as a critical partner for global corporations protecting margins.
• Technical Outlook: Chartists believe that after holding the ₹850 support, a close above ₹930 will confirm a definitive breakout, potentially ending the “IPO hangover” phase.

Also Read: Adani Airports IPO: Listing Timeline and Key Updates (February 2026)

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The Bottom Line

The 43% upside call from Prabhudas Lilladher has turned Fractal Analytics from a “failed listing” into a “conviction recovery.” For the Aam Aadmi investor, the focus should remain on the FY27 breakeven of Fractal Alpha and whether the company can sustain its 120%+ Net Revenue Retention.