If you were expecting a “Moon Mission” for India’s first pure-play AI IPO today, the Day 2 subscription data is a cold splash of reality. The truth is, as of February 10, 2026, the initial euphoria has been replaced by a “Wait-and-Watch” caution. While the India-US Trade Deal provided a boost earlier this week, a sudden 200-point Nifty correction from the morning highs of 25,947 has left the “Common Man” investor wondering if the 26,000-dream is dead.
The Shocking Stall: Fractal Analytics IPO Day 2 Update
Despite being hailed as the “Nvidia of India,” the Fractal Analytics IPO is seeing a surprisingly muted response. By midday on Day 2, the overall subscription stands at roughly 11-12%, barely moving from the 9% seen on Day 1.
Why the “AI Hype” is Cooling
- QIBs on the Sidelines: Qualified Institutional Buyers have largely stayed away so far, a common tactic to avoid locking up capital until the final hours.
- The “Grey Market” Warning: The Grey Market Premium (GMP) has collapsed from a peak of ₹182 to a mere ₹8 per share (a 1% premium). Truth be told, this “muted” GMP is signaling that the market finds the 71x P/E valuation a bit too “stiff.”
- Retail Resilience: The only bright spot is the Retail segment, which is currently over 40% subscribed, showing that small investors are still betting on the long-term AI story.
Fractal IPO: Day 2 Subscription Snapshot (Midday)
| Category | Subscription (Day 1) | Subscription (Day 2 Midday) | Investor Sentiment |
| Retail (RII) | 35% | ~42% | Steady Interest |
| Non-Institutional (NII) | 7% | ~9% | Very Cautious |
| Qualified Institutional (QIB) | 0% | <1% | Awaiting Day 3 |
| Overall | 9% | ~12% | Slow & Muted |
The 200-Point Nifty Correction: What Went Wrong?
After hitting an intraday high of 25,947, the Nifty 50 faced a sudden “Waterfall Sell-off,” dropping nearly 200 points to test the 25,750 zone. Here is the catch: the rally was hijacked by two specific heavyweights.
1. The HDFC Bank “Instituional Caution”
Despite the broader market rally, HDFC Bank shares turned into a major drag today. The stock faced heavy selling pressure after reports of waning institutional participation and a significant increase in Put Option activity at the ₹930 strike. The truth is, while SBI is soaring, HDFC Bank is currently trapped in a “four-day losing streak” due to profit-booking by long-term holders.
2. The IT “SaaSpocalypse” Aftermath
The Nifty IT Index failed to sustain its morning gains. Persistent headwinds from the US tech markets and the ongoing disruption fears from Agentic AI models continue to weigh on giants like HCL Tech and TCS. Investors are rotating money out of IT and into PSU Banks, leaving the tech sector “bleeding” in a flat market.
3. FII Profit Booking
After buying ₹2,254 Crore on Monday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) appear to be taking “chips off the table” at the 26,000 resistance zone. This “Traffic Jam” at the top is what triggered the 200-point slide.
What the Analysts are Saying
Market experts are calling this a “Healthy Shakeout.”
- Choice India: “The correction is expected as Nifty approaches the heavy call-writing zone of 26,000. Immediate support is at 25,650. As long as we hold that, the bias remains bullish.”
- Devarsh Vakil (HDFC Securities): “Global cues are positive, but domestic participants are waiting for the January Employment data from the US due tomorrow. Expect range-bound volatility.”
- The Consensus: The Fractal IPO response is a “reality check” on valuations, while the Nifty correction is a “pause” before the next big move.
💡 Pro-Tip: The “Day 3” Rule for Fractal
Historically, high-valuation tech IPOs in 2026 have seen 70% of their subscription in the final 3 hours of Day 3. If you are applying for “Listing Gains,” wait until tomorrow (Feb 11) afternoon. If the QIB portion doesn’t cross 5x, the listing might be flat or at a discount.
The Bottom Line
Today’s market action is a “Warning” that momentum can’t survive on hype alone. Between the muted Fractal IPO demand and the HDFC Bank-led Nifty correction, the market is demanding “Value” over “Narrative.” For the Retail Investor, the “Secret Blueprint” is to stay patient. The 26,000 level is a hard nut to crack, and the market is currently testing your “conviction.”