MUMBAI – In a dramatic reversal of fortune, shares of billionaire Anil Agarwal’s flagship, Vedanta Limited, plunged as much as 8.34% on Friday, January 30, 2026. The sharp decline snapped a six-day winning streak and saw the stock hit an intraday low of ₹702.40 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).
The crash comes as a paradox for investors, occurring less than 24 hours after the mining conglomerate reported its highest-ever quarterly EBITDA and a staggering 60% jump in net profit. The sell-off was triggered not by internal performance, but by a “perfect storm” of falling global commodity prices and aggressive profit-booking across the metal sector.
The Q3 Earnings Triumph: Record Profits and Margins
Vedanta’s financial report for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, was, by almost all accounts, a “blockbuster” performance. The company beat street estimates across every major metric:
- Net Profit: Surged 60% year-on-year (YoY) to ₹7,807 crore, driven by operational efficiencies and higher base metal realizations.
- Revenue: Scaled a new quarterly high of ₹45,899 crore, up 19% YoY.
- EBITDA: Reached a landmark ₹15,171 crore, the highest in the company’s history, with operating margins expanding to a robust 41%.
- Debt Reduction: The company’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 1.23x, down from 1.40x a year ago, signaling a significantly stronger balance sheet.
Why Did the Stock Crash Despite Strong Numbers?
The primary culprit behind Friday’s “black morning” for Vedanta was a sudden, coordinated retreat in global metal prices.
- Global Commodity Slump: Overnight, base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) faced a sharp correction. Copper and Aluminium futures tumbled up to 4%, while precious metals like silver (a major profit driver for Vedanta’s subsidiary, Hindustan Zinc) cooled off from historic highs.
- The “Warsh” Effect & Fed Fears: Speculation intensified that U.S. President Donald Trump might appoint Kevin Warsh—a known hawk—as the next Federal Reserve Chair. This sparked fears of a “higher-for-longer” interest rate regime and a strengthening US Dollar, both of which are traditionally “poison” for dollar-denominated commodities like metals.
- The Nifty Metal Meltdown: The sell-off was systemic. The Nifty Metal Index crashed nearly 5%, with peers like NALCO and Hindustan Copper plunging 9% to 11%. After a 16% rally in the metal sector over the last month, the Vedanta results provided the “sell on news” trigger that many institutional investors were waiting for to lock in profits.
Technical Outlook: The “Mean Reversion”
Technically, Vedanta was in a “hyper-extended” state. Having gained nearly 17% in January alone, the stock was trading deep in the overbought zone with an RSI (Relative Strength Index) nearing 80. Analysts suggest today’s 8% drop is a necessary “mean reversion” to its 20-day moving average.
What Retailers Should Watch For
Despite the price drop, major global brokerages have surprisingly raised their target prices.
- Investec hiked its target to ₹930 (from ₹700), citing the company’s demerger clarity.
- Citi upgraded the stock to a ‘Buy’ with a target of ₹900, banking on the value-unlocking potential of the planned split into five separate listed entities.
“The operational story is intact; this is a macro-driven correction,” said a senior commodity strategist. For retail investors, the key monitorable will be the US Federal Reserve’s stance next week and the stability of the Chinese manufacturing data, which dictates the global demand for Vedanta’s aluminium and zinc output.